There's a natural inclination at the beginning of the year to look forward. The new year offers us a fresh start and a great time to set goals. For a lot of us, one of those goals will be to buy a house. But what should we expect out of the housing market in 2022? Well, according to a survey of more than 20 top economic and housing experts conducted by the National Association of Realtors, we can expect the market to normalize. “Overall, survey participants believe we'll see the housing market and broader economy normalize [this] year,” Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said of the survey's results. “Though forecasted to rise 4 percent, inflation will decelerate after hefty gains in 2021, while home price increases are also expected to ease with an annual appreciation of less than 6 percent.” Survey participants expect home sales to fall slightly from 2021 but they also see an uptick in the number of new homes built. And, while they expect mortgage rates to move higher, the increases aren't expected to push rates higher than their pre-pandemic level. (source)

If you're like most Americans, your monthly mortgage payment will be among your biggest bills. That's why it's important for prospective home buyers to crunch the numbers before shopping for a house. Knowing how much you can comfortably afford will help you avoid buying a house that causes you financial stress. And these days, that's a factor. The pandemic has led to more economic uncertainty and it has a lot of us thinking about our bills. For example, in one recent survey, nearly 50 percent of participants said they've worried about their house payment during the past month. And those worries – along with increasing opportunities for remote work – have many of us looking to move somewhere more affordable. In fact, the same survey found 45 percent of respondents considering a move to a less expensive area. It's a common theme, lately. Since the beginning of the pandemic, many surveys have found a growing number of Americans interested in moving to smaller metros, suburbs, exurbs, and anywhere else they can get more house for their money. (source)

These days, housing market conditions are fairly easy to understand. There are fewer homes for sale and, because of that, home prices continue to rise. It's simple supply and demand. When there are fewer homes for buyers to choose from, the ones that are available go for a higher price. But while that's been the case for a while now, the most recent S&P Case-Shiller Indices – considered the leading measure of U.S. home prices – offers some encouraging news. The index found that, while prices are still climbing, they're now increasing at a slower pace. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P, says, in many of the cities the index tracks, price increases have slowed. “We continue to see very strong growth at the city level,” Lazzara said. “As was the case last month, however, in 14 of 20 cities, prices decelerated – i.e., increased by less in October than they had done in September.” But while the rate of increases has slowed, prices are still rising at a double-digit pace. In fact, October's gain was the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years S&P has been tracking price data. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell to a four-week low last week. Rates were down for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with both conforming and jumbo balances. The decline helped push refinance activity up 2 percent from the week before. But while refinancing homeowners were more active, home buyers weren't. In fact, demand for loans to buy homes fell 3 percent from one week earlier. Joel Kan, MBA's associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says the high end of the market is seeing more activity these days. “The average purchase loan increased for the second straight week to $416,200 – the second highest amount ever,” Kan said. “The elevated loan size is an indication that activity is more on the higher end of the market.” The MBA's weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Home buyers faced a lot of competition this year. Elevated demand and fewer homes available for sale meant interested buyers had to be ready for a bidding war or risk losing a good house to a better prepared buyer. This was certainly true during the spring and summer markets. In fact, according to one measure, 74.6 percent of offers faced competition in April. Fortunately, though, that was the peak. And, as the summer market turned to fall, buyer competition began to slow. By October, the number of offers that saw competition from other buyers had fallen to 61.8 percent. From there, it fell even further. The most recent numbers available show the competition rate was 59.5 percent in November – the first time since December 2020 that it dropped below 60 percent. But while that's a good indication that winter buyers will face less competition than earlier in the year, the rate in November was still up 2 percent from the year before. In other words, though the market isn't as hot, buyers still need to be prepared, since competition remains high and most homes continue to draw multiple buyers. (source)

When thinking about buying a house, most of us look at home prices and mortgage rates. Together, they can provide a rough idea of how much home we can afford. They aren't, however, the only factors that determine whether or not we're ready and able to buy. One metric that isn't as commonly checked but has a significant impact is mortgage credit availability. Put simply, the standards lenders use to determine whether or not a borrower is qualified aren't fixed. That means, there are times when it's easier to qualify for a mortgage and times when it's more difficult. The Mortgage Bankers Association tracks credit availability each month to gauge whether standards are loosening or tightening. Any increase indicates lending standards are loosening, while a decrease means they've tightened. In November, the index was relatively flat, falling less than 1 percent from the month before. Joel Kan, MBA's associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says government credit tightened while other loan types loosened. “The picture was different depending on the market segment,” Kan said. “An increase in conventional credit availability was offset by a decrease in government credit, as lenders reduced their offerings of government loan programs with lower credit scores, as well as those for investment homes.” (source)

Americans are concerned about the economy, according to Fannie Mae's most recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index. But while concerns about economic conditions have reached a 10-year high, they haven't diminished perceptions of the housing market. In fact, Fannie Mae's index – which measures Americans' feelings about home buying and selling conditions, mortgage rates, home prices, their jobs, and financial situation – was virtually unchanged from the month before. Among respondents, 74 percent said now is a good time to sell a home, while 29 percent said it was a good time to buy. Participants also expect home prices and mortgage rates to rise over the next year but feel more secure with their jobs and income. Mark Palim, Fannie Mae's vice president and deputy chief economist, says housing sentiment remains stable. “Even though consumers are reporting broader macroeconomic concerns – with much of it likely tied to inflation – so far any negative sentiment tied to the economy has not translated into a meaningful decrease in actual purchase mortgage demand,” Palim said. (source)

Work has a big impact on how and where we live. It determines what we can afford and where we need to be on a day-to-day basis. So when the pandemic began and more Americans started working remotely, it also led to some significant changes in home buying patterns. Where buyers previously valued proximity to their jobs and a short commute, they now were placing more importance on space, affordability, and proximity to family and friends. In short, more freedom to work from anywhere meant more freedom to live anywhere. But, according to the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, Lawrence Yun, it's too soon to say whether those patterns are here to stay. “We are only in the first innings of work-from-home options,” Yun said. “People have not fully digested the work-from-home flexibility model yet in determining home size and locational choice.” It's true. With many workplaces still weighing whether their employees should come back to the office full time, have a hybrid schedule, or stay totally remote, there are many Americans who are waiting to see what options they have. As those decisions get made and become permanent, it'll impact where and what home buyers are looking for in their next home. (source)

Some of homeownership's benefits are constant. Stability and the freedom to customize your living space, for example. Others depend a lot upon the ups and downs of the market. Equity is one of them. And these days, because of the market's continuing strength, homeowners are reaping the benefits in a big way. In fact, according to Black Knight Financial's most recent Mortgage Monitor, surging home values have increased the average mortgage holder's equity stake by $53,000, for an average of more than $175,000 in available equity per homeowner. Ben Graboske, Black Knight's president, says the gains are astonishing. “Home price growth in the third quarter – while less than half that of Q2's history-making rate – added more than $250 billion to Americans' already record levels of tappable equity,” Graboske said. “The aggregate total of $9.4 trillion is up an astonishing 32 percent from the same time last year and nearly 90 percent higher than the pre-Great Recession peak in 2006.” Increasing equity has also driven the average homeowner's loan-to-value ratio to the lowest level on record, meaning their home's value now far exceeds the amount they owe on it. (source)

Whether you just bought a house or are thinking about buying a house, home improvement projects may be on your mind. After all, unless you're moving into something newly built, there are bound to be things about your home you'd like to fix or change. It's natural. We all want our homes to fit our needs and have the features that make us feel most comfortable. But what are the most common projects homeowners are undertaking right now? Well, according to one recent survey, bathrooms lead the list. Renovating a bathroom was named by 52 percent of respondents when asked what topped their to-do list. Kitchens came in second, which isn't surprising. The kitchen, in many ways is the heart of the home, and an area most of us would like to customize to fit our needs. Home offices are also a popular project these days, with 31 percent of participants saying they were going to add one or improve an existing space. The rest of the list included finishing a basement or attic, adding a room, and building a separate dwelling. But whatever job you're considering, the first step is finding a reliable contractor and making sure you know how the cost of the job will fit into your budget. (source)