When you buy most things, you only have to consider their price. Buying a home is different. Whether or not a home is affordable depends on a number of factors beyond the list price. Mortgage rates, for example. The mortgage rate you lock in when you purchase your home helps determine how much your monthly payment will be. Which means, it's important for home buyers to know where rates are and where they may be headed. In recent years, rates have been low. How low? Well, by historical standards, very low. According to Freddie Mac, rates in the 1970s ranged between 7 and 9 percent, before skyrocketing in the early 1980s, when they reached as high as 18 percent. And even though they calmed down in the 1990s and 2000s, they didn't fall below 5 percent until 2009, following the financial crisis and housing crash. Since then, rates have remained low. In fact, rates over the past few years have been lower than they've been at any point in the past 40 years – which is great news for anyone looking to refinance their loan or purchase a home.

A competitive housing market can be difficult for home buyers. Not only do they have to prepare for the possibility of a bidding war, they also have to be prepared to lose one. The stress and potential for disappointment is almost enough to make home shoppers feel like giving up. Fortunately, newly released numbers show relief may be on the way for buyers concerned that a bidding war may blow up their budget. According to the data, the number of buyers in September who faced competition fell to the lowest level all year. In fact, 58.9 percent of home offers saw competition during the month. That's down from 60.8 percent in August and 74.3 percent in April. And while that's still high, there's clearly a trend downward. Bidding wars have now fallen for five straight months and are currently right about where they were one year ago at the same time. But while the market is slowing down, buyers still need to be prepared. Inventory is low and the homes that are available are selling faster than they typically do at this time of year. 

Sales of previously owned homes spiked 7 percent in September, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors. The month-over-month improvement included gains in every region of the country and reversed August's 2 percent decline. Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said the sales rebound was likely helped by the fact that there are more homes available for sale. “Some improvement in supply during prior months helped nudge up sales in September,” Yun said. “Housing demand remains strong as buyers likely want to secure a home before mortgage rates increase even further next year.” But while inventory has improved in recent months, the number of homes available for sale actually fell slightly in September, dropping 0.8 percent from the previous month. At the current sales pace, there is now a 2.4-month supply of available homes. A 6-month supply is considered a healthy housing market. Also in the report, 86 percent of homes sold in September were on the market less than a month. The typical property was on the market just 17 days.

A seller's market is one where there are more buyers than there are homes for sale. And this year's market has been a great example of that. With a historically low number of homes for sale, competition and bidding wars have frustrated buyers and helped drive surging prices even higher. But the market began to cool in late summer and now, in early autumn, there's evidence that it's calmed even further. Prospective buyers are now finding more homes available for sale and less competition from other buyers; time on market is increasing and the share of sellers who had to drop their list price has nearly doubled from where it was in April. Additionally, inventory has now risen for four consecutive months. That's encouraging news for today's buyers. But while a calmer market should help bring some relief, it is still a seller's market – just one that has finally begun to slow down. So home shoppers should still make sure to have their finances in order and be ready to act fast when they find a home they love.

Predictions aren't easy, but Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group makes them on a monthly basis. The group's forecasts cover what they see ahead for the housing market and general economy. And, according to their October outlook, they expect inflation and consumer spending concerns to cause monetary policy to tighten in the months ahead. But what does that mean to the average home buyer or seller? Well, Fannie Mae says they should expect mortgage rates to rise slightly but remain low throughout 2022. The ESR Group also expects home price growth to decelerate somewhat from the double-digit spikes seen this year. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae's senior vice president and chief economist, says overall, we shouldn't expect major changes. “Even a modest tightening of monetary policy would of course impact housing, but we expect the effects to be largely muted given current market conditions,” Duncan said. “Mortgage rates may rise in response to the tighter environment, but we expect the severe shortage of homes for sale to remain the primary driver of strong house price appreciation through at least 2022, limiting interest rate effects on home sales and home prices.”

First-time home buyers used to make up a larger share of the homes sold in any given year. Typically, they'd account for around 40 percent of annual home sales. But younger home buyers, for a multitude of reasons, have been less active in the housing market in recent years. According to one new analysis, for example, the share of buyers between the ages of 18 and 39 fell 13 percent between 2009 and 2019. That wasn't the only demographic shift during those years, though. In fact, while the share of younger buyers was dropping another demographic was becoming far more active than they'd previously been. The analysis found that buyers 60 years or older grew 47 percent during the same time period. That's a significant increase, and one that's pushed the median age of recent home buyers to 44. Another consequence of this surprising demographic shift is that younger home shoppers are facing more competition from older, more financially settled, buyers – which could make a difference in a hot market where bidding wars are common.

These days, it isn't easy to find a deal. In most markets, there are more home buyers than there are available homes for sale. That puts upward pressure on prices, causes bidding wars, and means fewer bargains for buyers. So what can a budget-minded home shopper do? Well, new numbers from ATTOM Data Solutions offer a clue. Their analysis looked at every calendar day over the past eight years with at least 10,000 home sales and calculated the premium or discount buyers paid on that day. The results help zero in on the days and months when home buyers can expect to get the best deal on a house. For example, the analysis determined that buyers who closed in October paid the smallest premium of any month, at 2.9 percent. And while that's still above market value, it isn't the 11.5 percent May buyers pay or the 9 percent premium buyers pay in June. In other words, October is the best month for getting a good deal. The best individual days to buy, on the other hand, were mostly found in December. Overall, however, buyers who closed in October, November, December or January did better than those who waited until spring.

Home prices have been increasing for more than just the past few months. But, according to newly released numbers from the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the increases seen this summer were widespread, consistent, and, in some cases, record setting. S&P's index, which is among the leading measures of U.S. home prices, shows that prices were up nearly 20 percent over year-before levels in July. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P, says the increases have been extraordinary. “The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains, but in the consistency of gains across the country,” Lazzara said. “Home prices in 19 of our 20 cities now stand at all-time highs, with the sole outlier (Chicago) only 0.3 percent below its 2006 peak.” While increasing prices are good for home sellers, they have put pressure on affordability levels. Fortunately, the rate of increases is expected to slow somewhat as the market begins to cool this fall.

New numbers from the National Association of Realtors show that, even as the summer market looked to be slowing down, homes for sale were still selling quickly. In fact, the typical property was only on the market 17 days in August and 87 percent of homes sold during the month were available less than 30 days. It's yet another sign that inventory remains the market's biggest issue. Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, says home buyers are still looking, despite challenging conditions. “Although there was a decline in home purchases, potential buyers are out and about searching, but much more measured about their financial limits, and simply waiting for more inventory,” Yun said. The lack of homes for sale has made for a competitive and fast-paced summer. It's also held back sales. In August, sales of previously owned homes fell 2 percent from the month before. The decline came after two consecutive months of gains.

If you're a prospective home buyer, the pace of new home construction should matter to you. Today's hot market and rapidly rising prices are largely due to the fact that there are fewer homes for sale these days. Combined with a high level of buyer demand, the lack of inventory has caused a competitive market where homes sell quickly and well over the seller's asking price. So what's the answer to this problem? Well, adding to the supply of available homes would help alleviate some of the pressure home buyers are currently feeling. And that's why the latest New Residential Construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development is encouraging news. The report found that the number of new homes that began construction in August was 3.9 percent higher than the month before and 17.4 percent higher than last year at the same time. Additionally, the number of permits to build new homes was also up, rising 6 percent from July. The gains mean more homes for sale and, potentially, less stress for home shoppers